Week 4 NFL Odds – Raiders vs Broncos

PeytonManningandtheBroncosknewtheirstartoftheseasonwasntgoingtobeeasy,butinthecalendar,oneofthepossiblevictoriesshouldcomewhentheOaklandRaidersvisittheSportsAuthorityFieldatMileHigh。

ThatgameisthisSundayat4:05PMET。

Manningissittingwitha1-2recordandwithasubstantialchemistryproblemonhishands;heseemslikehehasntbeenintunewithhisreceiversoneverysnap。

Wehavetostudythistapeandstudywhatitisweredoingwrong,Manningsaid。

Studyanythingthatwearedoingwellandtrytobuildoffthat。

Were1-2,andwevegotabigdivisiongamecomingupagainstOakland,saidManning,whohaswonhislastthreematchesversustheRaiders。

Divisiongamescountdouble,sowevegottolearnfromthislastgameandimprovefromit。

TheRaidersbeattheSteelersathomewithalastsecondfieldgoal。

Theimpressivepartwasboththewin,butalsothefactthattheyscored34points。

Wevegotitinustobeamentallytoughteamandcompeteandfightandkeepgoinguntiltheveryend,saidfirst-yearRaiderscoachandex-Denversdefensivecoordinator,DennisAllen。

Thatswhatyouhavetodotowinconsistentlyinthisleague,andthatswhatourguysdid。

CarsonPalmercompleted24of34passesfor209yardswithaseason-highthreetouchdowns;hetooktheRaiderstoscoremorepointsthantheirfirsttwoweekscombined。

TheoddshaveManningandtheBroncosas-6。


mysql多个服务器下的数据库同步到另外一个服务器下数据库-syncnavigator数据库同步syncnavigator 授权码

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Why is My Database Application so Slow – Business Intelligence Info

Slowapplicationsaffectendusersfirst,buttheimpactissoonfeltbythewholeteam,includingtheDBA,Devteam,networkadminandthesystemadminslookingafterthehardware。

Withsomanypeopleinvolved,eachwiththeirownviewonthelikelycause,itcanbehardtopindownwherethebottlenecksreallyare。

Broadly,therearetwomaincausesofperformanceissueswithaSQLServerapplication:

Networkproblems–relatingtothespeedandcapacityofthe“pipe”connectingyourSQLapplicationclienttothedatabase

Slowprocessingtimes–relatingtothespeedandefficiencywithwhichrequestsareprocessed,atendsideofthepipe。

Inthisarticle,we’regoingtolookinabitmoredetailabouthowtodiagnosetheseandgettothebottomofperformanceissues。

Networkproblems

Networkperformanceissuesbroadlybreakdownintoproblemsrelatingtothespeedofresponsesacrossthenetwork(latency)ortothecapacityofthenetwork(bandwidth)i。

e。

howmuchdataitcantransmitinasettime。

Ofcourse,thetwoareinterconnected。

Ifnetworktrafficgeneratedbyyourapp(orotherappsonthesamenetwork)isoverwhelmingtheavailablebandwidth,thisinturncouldincreaselatency。

Latency

LatencyisthetimeittakestosendaTCPpacketbetweentheappandtheSQLServer。

YouincurlatencyonthewayuptotheDBandonthewaydown。

Peoplegenerallytalkaboutlatencyintermsofroundtriptimes:i。

e。

thetimetogetthereandback

Figure1showsa60-millisecondroundtrip。

Figure1

Bandwidth

Theamountofdatathatcanbesentorreceivedinanamountoftime,normallymeasuredinkb/sorMb/s(megabitspersecond)。

Peopleoftentalkaboutthe‘sizeofyourpipe’whendiscussingbandwidthandit’sagoodanalogy(plusitsoundsnaughty):thefatteryourpipe,themoredatayoucangetthroughitatonce。

Ifyourappneedstoreceivea10-megabyteresponse(that’s80megabits!

)andyouhavea20Mb/sconnection,theresponsewilltakeatleast4secondstobereceived。

Ifyouhavea10Mb/sconnectionitwilltakeatleast8secondstobereceived。

IfotherpeopleonyournetworkarestreamingGameofThrones,thatwillreducetheavailablebandwidthforyoutouse。

Applicationproblems:slowprocessingtimes

WhenevertheclientsendsarequesttoSQLServer,toretrievetherequireddataset,thetotalprocessingtimerequiredtofulfillarequestcomprisesboth:

Appprocessingtime:howlongittakesfortheapptoprocessthedatafromthepreviousresponse,beforesendingthenextrequest

SQLprocessingtime:howlongSQLspendsprocessingtherequestbeforesendingtheresponse

Figure2providesasimpleillustrationofthisconcept。

Figure2

Whereisthetimebeingspent?

WespendalotoftimeinvestigatingtheperformanceofClient/ServerSQLapplications,andthereareanoverwhelmingnumberofdifferenttools,scriptsandmethodstohelpyoutroubleshootanynumberofdifferenttypesofperformanceissue。

Sohow,whenconfrontedwithslowapplicationresponsetimes,dowepinpointquicklytherootcauseoftheproblem?

TheflowchartinFigure3showsasystematicwayofapproachingtheproblem。

Figure3

Wheninvestigatingperformanceproblems,youmayhavemorethanoneissue。

It’sworthlookingatafewdifferentpartsoftheapp。

Isitageneralproblem?

Oraresomepartsmuchslowerthanothers?

It’sbesttostartsmall。

Itwillmakelifeeasierifyoucanfocusonaspecificareaoftheappthatisparticularlyslow,forexamplelet’ssaywhenyouclickthe“SelectAll”buttonontheinvoicespage,ittakes10secondstoloadtheresults。

Focusingonasmallrepeatableworkflowwillletyouisolatetheissue。

Thenextquestiontoanswer,ofcourse,isWhyisittaking10seconds?

ThefirstandeasiestwaytonarrowtheissuedownistoruntheappasclosetotheSQLServeraspossible,onthesamemachine,oronthesameLAN。

Ifhavingeffectivelyremovedanynetworklatencyandbandwidthconstraintsitsuddenlytakesasecondorlesstoselectalltheinvoices,thenyouneedtoinvestigatewhatnetworkproblemsmightbeeatingupalltherestofthetime。

Iftheappisstilltakingabout10secondstoloadtheresults,thencongratulations,you’veagaineliminated2ofthe4issues!

Now,youneedtolookatwherethebulkofthisprocessingtimeisbeingspent。

Let’stakeacloserlookathowtoworkoutwherethebulkofthistimeisbeingspent。

You’llneedeitherWiresharkorSQLProfiler(whicheveryou’remorecomfortablewith)。

Investigatingapplicationprocessingtimes

You’llseethetimeinoneoftwoplaces:betweensendingaresponsetotheappandgettingthenextrequest(theappprocessingtime)orbetweenissuingarequesttoSQLServerandgettingaresponse(theSQLprocessingtime)。

ToworkoutwhichoneiscausingyourissueyoucanuseeitherWiresharkorSQLProfilerasbothcantellustheapproximateappandSQLprocessingtime(althoughtheexactnumbersmaydifferslightly)。

UsingWireshark

WecanuseWiresharktocapturethenetworktrafficwhiletheworkflowisexecuting。

UsingWiresharkallowsustofilteroutnon-applicationtrafficandlookatthetimedifferencebetweenallthepacketsintheworkflow。

Tocalculatetheapproximateapplicationprocessingtime:

Capturethepacketsfortheworkflow:StartaWiresharkcaptureandruntheappworkflow,remembertostopthecaptureoncetheworkflowiscomplete。

Remembertoselecttherelevantnetworkinterfaceandnotethatyou’llneedtoruntheapponadifferentmachinefromthedatabaseforWiresharktoseethetraffic。

Makesureyou’renotrunninganyotherlocalSQLapplicationsotherthantheoneyou’retryingtocapture。

Getridofthenon-apptrafficbyapplyingthefiltertdsandthenFile|ExportSpecifiedPackets,givingafilenameandmakingsure“Displayed”isselected。

OpenthisnewfileinWireshark。

Showthetimedifferencebetweenthecurrentandpreviouspacket,simplybyaddingthetimedeltacolumn,asfollows:

SelectEdit|Preferences|Appearance|Columns

Clickthe+button,changethetypedropdownto“DeltaTime”andtheTitleto“Delta“

FilterthetraffictojustRequests:

(tds。

type==0x01||tds。

type==0x03||tds。

type==0x0E)tds。

packet_number==1

TheabovefilterwillshowjustthefirstTDSpacketineachrequest,andtheDeltacolumnwillnowshowthetimebetweenthelastresponsepacketofthepreviousrequestandthenextrequest。

Makesurethepacketsareorderedbythe“No。

”columnasthiswillensurethatthepacketsareintheordertheyweresent/received。

ExportasaCSV,bynavigatingFile|ExportPacketDissections|AsCSV

Calculateappprocessingtimeinseconds–opentheCSVinExcelandsumupthevaluesintheDeltacolumn。

TogetapproximateSQLprocessingtime:

Reopenthefileyoucreatedinstep2。

aboveinWireshark,filterthetraffictojustresponses:

tds。

type==0x04tds。

packet_number==1

TheabovefilterwillshowjustthefirstTDSpacketineachresponse,andtheDeltacolumnwillnowshowthetimebetweenthelastrequestpacketofthepreviousrequestandthefirstresponsepacketsentbackfromtheSQLServer。

Again,ensurethepacketsareorderedbythe“No。

”column。

ExportasaCSV,bynavigatingFile|ExportPacketDissections|AsCSV

CalculateSQLprocessingtimeinseconds–opentheCSVinExcelandsumupthevaluesintheDeltacolumn。

UsingSQLProfiler

AlthoughcollectingdiagnosticdatausingSQLProfilerisknowntoaddsomeoverheadtoyourworkflowitshouldstillgiveyouabroadpictureoftheprocessingtimes。

Youcanminimizethisoverheadbyrunningaserver-sidetrace,andthenexportingthedataasdescribedbelow。

Alternatively,ifyou’reconfidentwithExtendedEventsandXQuery,youshouldbeabletogetsimilardataviathatroute。

StartbycapturingaProfilertraceoftheworkflow,justusingthe“Standard(default)”tracetemplate。

Makesurethatnothingelseishittingthedatabaseatthesametimesoyou’reonlycapturingyourtraffic。

Onceyou’vecapturedtheworkloadinthetrace,saveittoatracetableusingFile|SaveAs|TraceTable。


The great white hope of the oil industry – MoneyWeek

It’snotjustthecoldthatmakesAlbertasuchadauntingplaceforoilgroups,though。

Canadianoilisanightmaretoexploit–trappedinsandbankedbeneaththerocksurface,theoilispartofamuckysoupofclay,tarandshale。

Twotonsofthismixtureyieldsjustonebarrelofoilanditwasn’tuntilthelate1960sthatoilgroupshadmuchsuccesswiththeseparationprocess。

IttookanageforCanadianoilgiantSyncrudetocomeupwiththerightkindofheavymachineryastheystruggledtodragthetarfrombeneaththesurfaceingiantbuckets。

Tappingthetarsandsisnowherenearaspainstakingtoday。

Butitdoesrequireaphenomenalamountofnaturalresourcestogetthejobdone。

Tarsandsdevelopersrelyonnaturalgastopowertheirmassiveextractionfacilities,whichisanincreasinglyexpensivebusiness。

Theprocessalsoputsseriouspressureonlocalwaterresourcesasittakesabout1。

4barrelsofwatertoproduceasinglebarrelofoil–lotsofsteamisneededtobringthetarsandtothesurface。

Andwhilemostofthiswaterisrecycled,developersarestillconsumingmorethan10%ofthelocalAthabascaRiver’swaterflow。

Justasbad,productionoftarsandsoilgeneratesbetweentwoandfourtimestheamountofgreenhousegasesperbarrelasconventionaloil。

Thispartlyexplainstheuneasyattitudeoflocalofficials,wholastyearimposeda20%royaltyhikeondeveloperstappingthepublicly-ownedoilfields,amovethatledmanyenergyanalystsaggressivelytomarkdowntarsandsstocks,suchasSuncorandtheCanadianOilSandsTrust。

ThatroyaltydecisionwaspopularinAlberta,wherelocalsfeltthattheywerenotgettingtheirfairshareoftheprovince’senergyresources。

However,itwasmuchlessacceptabletoWallStreet,whereenergyanalystsreactedbydismissingtheareaas‘Albertistan’,partof‘Canazuela’。

Buthoweveruneasytherelationshipwithlocalofficialsis,Albertaultimatelyisn’tRussia–therehasbeennorevocationoflicences,andAlbertansunderstandthatthedevelopersareinthereforthelonghaul。

ButthediscountsonCanadianoilsandsstocksareasmuchaboutWallStreet’smountingconcernsovercostoverrunsastheyareaboutlocalbureaucracy。

Inthepasttenyears,theaveragecostoffinding,developingandproducinginAlbertahasjumpedfromjust$8perbarrelofoilequivalentperdaytoaround$30。

Aseriousshortageoflabourandmachineryhasalsocontributedtoarun-upincosts。

Oilmaybeover$100abarrelnow,butwiththeinputcostofnaturalgasescalating,tarsandsgroupsareundoubtedlynervousaboutjusthowmuchtheirprofitmarginsmightbeshavedifarecessionhitsoilprices。

Nonetheless,withglobaloilconsumptionstillrisingbyonetotwopercentayear,theindustryhaslittlechoicebuttosearchbeneathAlberta。

Canadacurrentlyproducesaboutonemillionbarrelsofoiladayfromthetarsands。

Expectthattotripleinthenexttwodecades。

Suncorisalreadyhalfwaytoitstarget

Oneofthepioneersinoilsandsdevelopment,SuncorEnergy’s(NYSE:SU)sharepricehasrecentlytakenabitofabattering。

Althoughthecompanyreporteda13%jumpinrevenueslastyear,itmadeabiginvestmentinextrainfrastructureandthestockhasfallenwiththemarketsincethestartofthisyear。

AlreadyoneofthegiantsamongtheCanadianoilsandsplays,Suncorisploughingaheadwithanaggressive$20。

6bnoilsandsexpansionthatwilladd200,000barrelsadayofcrudeoilby2012。

Therecentsell-offinshareswaspartlydowntoworriesaboutthesheerscaleoftheseambitions,giventhedifficultyofsteppingupproductioninthefaceoflabourandmachineshortages。

ButasBlackmontCapitalanalystMennoHulshofpointsout,Suncorisalreadymorethanhalfwaytoachievingitstargetof550,000barrelsperdayofcrudeoilby2012,andisideallyplacedtotapthetarsandsoverthelongterm。

Intheshortterm,Suncorissellingitsmixofoilproductsataround$74perbarrel,whilecashcostsrunatlessthan$28abarrel。

Allinall,theforwardp/eoftenlooksprettymodest。

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US financial meltdown it ain’t over till it’s over – MoneyWeek

It’sunderstandablewhymanythinktheworstmustbepast–thesheersizeofthewrite-offssofarcouldeasilyleadyoutowonderhowmuchmoremoneycanbelost。

Afterall,bankshavealreadywrittendown$245bnandraised$150bnincapitaltorepairtheirbalancesheets。

Butthetruthisthatthisismorelikelytobethebeginningthantheend。

Notonlyhavewenotseenallthelossesfromthemortgagedebacle,butthereckoningfromoverexuberanceinotherpartsofthecreditmarkethasbarelybegun。

Thefirstthingthatweshouldnoteisthattheproblemisnotjustsubprime。

It’snotevensubprimeandAlt-A。

(Alt-Ameanstheborrowerhasadecentcreditscore,buttheapplicationdoesn’tconformtoprimestandards–oftenthere’slimitedornoproofofincome。

)Iftruthbetold,someoftheprimeouttherelooks,well,notthatprimeafterall–foreclosureratesonprimeadjustable-ratemortgagesarenowfollowingsubprimes。

ThefactisthatweareinunchartedterritorywithUSmortgages,bothintermsofthescaleofthebubbleandtheslacknessofthelendingstandards。

Thequestionis:howbadwillthedamagebe?

Estimatinglikelylossesisverytrickysincewedon’thaveaccurateprecedentstogoon。

Butoneattempt,byagroupofeconomistsincludingJanHatziusofGoldmanSachs,triesthreedifferentapproachesandfindsallpointtolossesnorthof$400bn。

Ofthis,theyforecastthatabitoverhalf–around$240bn–willbebornebytheleveragedfinancialsector:banks,broker-dealers,hedgefundsandfinancecompanies。

Therestwillfalloninvestorssuchaspensionandinsurancefunds,whoownmortgage-backedsecurities(MBS)–bondsbackedbythecashflowfrompoolsofmortgages–orcollateraliseddebtobligations(CDOs)builtinturnfrompoolsofMBS。

Althoughalltheselossesareimportant,it’sthefinancialsectorlossesthatmattermost。

That’sbecauseit’stheerosionofthebanks’capitalthroughwrite-downsthatforcesthemtocutlendingandinterfereswiththesupplyofcredittotheeconomy。

Thecreditcrunchwon’tbeoveruntilthebleedingstopsandthenewinjectionsofcapitalletbanksopenforbusinessoncemore。

Withthatinmind,thesituationdoesn’tlooktoobad。

Althoughnotallthewrite-offssofararemortgagedebt,itlooksreasonabletoconcludefromthesizeofthemthatwe’refairlyfarthroughrecognisingthelosses–especiallysincethosebymoreprivateholderssuchashedgefundswillhavebeenrecognised,butwon’tbeacknowledgedsopublicly。

Meanwhile,therightsissuessofararegoingagoodwaytoreplacingvanishedreserves。

AsfarasUSmortgagesgo,theendmaybeinsight。

Sowhat’sthesnag?

Theproblemisthatresidentialisjustthebeginning。

Consumersaren’tjustintroubleonmortgages–they’reintroubleeverywhere。

Ifpeopledefaultontheirmortgages,weshouldexpectthemtodefaultoncreditcards,carloans,studentloans,homeloansandeveryotherformofdebtthathasbeenrecklesslyadvancedforthelastfewyears。

Andthat’sexactlywhatwe’reseeing。

LatestdatafromtheAmericanBankersAssociationshowconsumersfallingbehindonpaymentsatthehighestratein15years。

This,remember,isbeforewe’reevenfullyintoaUSrecession。

Thesetypesofdebtaren’tasbigasthemortgagemarket,butthey’resignificant–there’saround$2。

5trninconsumercreditoutstanding,comparedwith$10。

5trninmortgages。

And,likemortgages,theseloanshavebeendistributedthroughthefinancialsystem,bybeingplacedintoasset-backedsecurities(ABS)orslicedanddicedintoCDOs。

Inotherwords,theyarewaitingtowreakhavocinjustthewaythatmortgagesalreadyhave。

Goldman’sanalystsexpecttotallossesof$145bnforcreditcardsand$78bnforcarloans。

Thegoodnewsforfinancialinstitutionsisthatthehittothemislikelytobesmaller(relativelyspeaking)becausetheyhavelessexposuretotheselosses–Goldmanestimateslossesof$38bnand$13bnrespectively。

Butitdoesbringawholenewgroupofpotentiallosersintotheframe,suchasspecialistcreditcardlenders–aswellasless-obviousvictimssuchascarfirms,throughtheirfinancearms。

However,consumerproblemsdon’taccountforeverythingatrisk。

UScommercialrealestateandconstructionanddevelopmentlendingalsogotcarriedaway。

Whiletheexcessesweren’tasgreatasinresidential,there’snodoubtthatlendingstandardsslipped,overbuildingtookplaceandpriceswerebidupbeyondreason。

Nowthestrainsareshowing。

Delinquencyratesoncommercialmortgagesalmostdoubledduring2007,evenwhilethenon-residentialconstructionboomcontinued。

Nowconstructionappearstohavepeakedandispoisedtofollowresidentialdown。

Vacancyratesarerisinginmanyareas。

Meanwhile–intheusualcaseofthestabledoorslammingbehindthedepartedhorse–theFed’sSeniorLoanOfficersurveyshowscommerciallenderssteadilytighteningtheirstandards。

Commercialreal-estatelossesarestartingtoshowupinbanks’write-downs,butthemajorityisstilltocome–Goldmanestimateslossestotheleveragedfinancialsectorof$83bn。

Butthelossprofilemaybeabitdifferent–whilethebigbanksareheavilyexposedtoresidentialmortgages,commercialloansareconcentratedwithmid-sizedUSregionalbanks(seechartbelow)。

Thesefirmsmayhavedodgedabulletbynotbeingsoheavilyexposedtoresidentialmortgages,buttheirreckoningiscoming。

Leveragedloans

It’snotjustaconsumerproblemandrealestateproblem。

Anyonewholooksatrecentwrite-downsinanydetailwillhavenoticedthewords‘leveragedloan’croppingupwithincreasingfrequency。

Leveragedloansareloanstocompaniesthathaveahigherriskofdefaultingonthedebt–they’retheloanequivalentofajunkbond。

Thetwoarealsoknownashigh-yieldloansandhigh-yieldbondsrespectively,reflectingthefactthattheborrowermustpaymoreinteresttocompensateforthehigherriskofdefault。

Leveragedloanswerepartofthestartofthecreditcrunch。

Bankshadbeenadvancingloanstoprivateequitygroupstofundtheirbuyouts,withtheloansthenbeingsyndicated(soldontootherinvestors)orrepaidwhentheborrowerraisedmoneyinanotherway–suchasissuinghigh-yieldbondsinthebondmarket。

Forarrangingthistemporaryloan,thebankpocketsasizeablefee。

Itwasagoodbusiness–untilthecreditcrunchhitandbuyerswentonstrike,leavingthebanksstuckwithasizeablebacklogofloansontheirbalancesheets。

Atitspeak,thebacklogwasestimatedintheregionof$300bn,althoughithasnowbeenpareddowntosomewhereabove$200bn。

Buttoshifttheseloans,banksarebeingforcedtosellatbiglosses。

Pricesaround85-90centsonthedollararecommon,withsomedealsbeingreportedinthe60s。

Atfirst,thislooksstrange。

Unlikemortgages,wherelossesarealreadytakingplace,andconsumerloansandcommercialrealestate,wheredefaultratesarepickingup,thestressincorporatedebtisprettymuchconfinedtothepriceitfetchesinthemarket。

Defaultratesremainverylow–ratingsagencyMoody’sreportdefaultsof0。

1%onleveragedloansand1。

3%onhigh-yieldbondsfor2007。

Sowhyareinvestorsrunningscared?

Bynow,it’swidelyknownthatlendingstandardsinthemortgagemarketwerelamentablylowformanyyears。

Whatfewerpeoplerealiseisthatstandardsinlendingtobusinessesslippeddrasticallyaswell。

Justasmortgagefirmslentatincreasinglyhighmultiplesofsalary,corporatelendersgrewlessstringentaboutborrowers’financialstrength(seechartbelow)。

Covenantsonloansbecamelaxer。

Riskierdebtsuchassecond-lienandmezzanineloans–whichrankbehindotherloanswhenitcomestogettingpaidintheeventofadefault–proliferated,whiletheratiooflower-ratedtohigher-ratedbondsincreased。

Meanwhile,likemortgagesandconsumercredit,muchofthedebtwassecuritisedintocollateralisedloanobligations(CLOs)andsoldon,spreadingtheimpactfurtherthroughthesystem。

Inshort,corporatelendinghaditsownsubprimeproblem。

Whiledefaultratesremainedlow,thisrelaxedapproachtolendingstandardsseemedfine,butthatbenignenvironmentisunlikelytocontinue。

Moody’sforecaststhatUSbonddefaultrateswillincreaseto5。

3%bytheendof2008andloansto3%。

However,thiswouldmerelytakeitbacktonearlong-termaveragelevelsandassumesneutralliquidityconditionsreturn–ifliquidityremainsastightasitiscurrently,analystssay10%-plusdefaultratesonbonds(andanimpliedrateof6%ormoreonloans)arepossible。

What’smore,becauseloanshavebeendistributedamonglenderstoagreaterextentthanbefore,therecouldbeasubstantialdifferencebetweenthiscreditcycleandpreviousones,saysWillemSels,headofcreditstrategyatDresdnerKleinwort。

Inthepast,adefaultingcompanywouldoftenbedealingwithonelender–thebankthatoriginallymadetheloan。

Thistime,mostwillbedealingwithseverallendersoneachloan,whohavedifferentagendasandwhoseinterestsmaynotbealignedwitheachotherortheborrower。

Theresultmaybeless-than-idealforallinvolved–borrowersareforcedintobankruptcyorrushedassetsales,whilelendersgetbacklessthantheymightotherwisehavedone。

Consequently,Selsthinksthatrecoveryratesarelikelytobewellbelowtheirhistoricaverageof35%forhigh-yieldbondsand65%forleveragedloans。

Goldmanestimatesthattheleveragedfinancialsectorwilltakelossesof$53bnoncorporateloansand$33bnonbonds,bringingthegrandtotaltoaround$458bn。

Overalllosses,includinginvestorssuchaspensionandinsurancefunds,maytop$1。

2trn。

Thesefiguresinvolvealotofassumptionsthatmaybetoopessimisticortoooptimistic;inaddition,there’snoallowancefortheburstinghousingbubbleselsewhereintheworld。

Butthemessageisclear–banksarenowhereneartofinishingtheirwrite-downs。

Anduntiltheydo–andraiseenoughcapitaltopatchtheresultingholesintheirbalancesheets–thecreditcrunchwon’tbeover。

Sowhatdoesthismeanforinvestors?

Ifyou’reinvestedinafinancialcompany,it’snogoodbeingreassuredthatithaslittlesubprimeexposure–youalsoneedtoknowitsexposureinotherdebtclassesandotherlinesofbusiness,suchasprimebrokerage(lendingtohedgefundsthatmayinturnbeinvestedinriskydebt)。

ConsiderCitigroup’sproposedsaleof$12bninleveragedloans,whichwillseethebankprovide75%ofthefinanceforthedeal–whileitwillnolongerbeonthehookforthefirstsliceofthelosses,itcertainlyhasn’tshiftedalltherisk。

It’salsoimportanttoknowwherefundsareinvestingtheirmoney。

We’vealreadyseenproblemswithfundsthatheldriskymortgagedebtinanefforttoekeoutmoreyield,anddiscoveredthatmanyAAA-ratedCDOsweren’treallyAAA。

Thesameproblemsarelikelytocropupwithotherformsofdebt。

Lastly,investorsincompanieswithahighdebtloadshouldbeawareofahigherriskofdefault。

Checkitsfundingarrangements–isitindangerofbreachingcovenants(suchasthelevelofEbitda/interestcover)ordoesithavedebtthatneedstoberefinancedsoon?

Theprospectsaren’tgoodforfirmsthatneedmoremoneyinthesemarketsandexistingshareholdersarelikelytogetlittleinanyrestructuring。

Thefinalquestionishowtomakemoneyfromthecrunch。

Anycreditcrisissuchasthiscreatesopportunities。

Panickedinvestorsfailtodifferentiatebetweengoodandbad,givingyouthechancetopickupoversold,butsoliddebtandtoinvestindistressedcompaniesthatmaysurvive。

Welookattwowaystomakeaplayonthisbelow。

Tworiskywaystoprofitfromthecrunch

Investinginmispriceddebtordistressedcompaniesishighrisk。

Securitiesthatseemtoocheapmaybesoforareason,whileturnaroundinvestmentsoftenfailtoliveuptothename。

Thatcaveataside,timeslikethisthrowupsomeinterestingopportunitiesandherearetwowaystoplaythesethemes。

Prodesse(PRD)isaspecialistinvestmentcompanythatinvestsinAAA-ratedsecuritiesfromUSGovernmentSponsoredEntities(GSEs)。

BondinvestorshavelongtreatedtheGSEsascarryingaUSgovernmentguarantee,butthisisn’ttrue;onlyGinnieMaeisguaranteedandtheothertwoexplicitlypointoutthattheyarenot。

Recently,GSEbondpricesandcreditdefaultswapshavebeenvolatileasmarketsquestiontheassumptionthatthegovernmentwouldalwaysbailthemout。

ButwhiletheGSEscouldtechnicallydefault,thechanceisincrediblyslim–thedisruptionthatitwouldcauseinthemarketwouldbesovastthatit’simpossibletoimaginethegovernmentallowingittohappen。

Investinginthesesecuritieswhentradersarepanickingovernon-existentthreatslooksagoodbet–butbearinmindthatProdesseusesleveragetoincreasereturnsandconsequentlycarrieshigherrisk。

Althoughyoucaninvestdirectlyindistressedcompaniesandhopeforaturnaround,entrustingyourmoneytoaspecialistfundmaybeabetteroption,sinceitwillhaveenoughclouttoaffectthefutureofthecompany。

Thereareafewinvestmentcompanieswhoseinvestingstylescatertothis–ChrisMayerofCapitalCrisispicksoutLeucadiaNational(US:LUK),aNewYork-basedconglomeratethatpractices“theepitomeofdistressedinvesting”。

Buyingsharesinafirmlikethisinvolvesputtingyourtrustinthemanagement’sjudgment。

However,Leucadia’strackrecord,stretchingbackto1979,looksprettygood。

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Steve Hilton The barefoot revolutionary – MoneyWeek

The“barefootrevolutionary”irritatedmany:lastyear,herefusedtowearshoeswhenhostingaDowningStreetreception。

Hilton’simpatienceantagonisedcivilservicemandarinsandLibDemcoalitionpartners,whomheopposedoneverythingfrombusinessregulationtoEurope。

“SteveHiltonisstillwidelymisrepresentedasashaven-hairedhippyLeftybecauseofhispenchantforcasualattireandoccasionalfocusonloopyideas,”saysIainMartininTheDailyTelegraph。

“Butwherethegovernmenthasbeenmostradical…ineducationandwelfare,hehasbeenrelentlessindrivingonthecauseofreform。



ThevaluetoCameronofthis“unconventionalchildofHungarianimmigrantswashuge”,saysMartinIvensinTheSundayTimes。

Bornin1969,HiltonwasascholarshipboyatChrist’sHospitalandstudiedPPEatOxford。

HemetCameronwhenhewassecondedfromSaatchiSaatchitoworkonJohnMajor’s1992election–andsawhispotentialasafutureleader,saysTheIndependentonSunday。

OthersrecognisedHilton’stalents。

“NooneremindsmeasmuchofmewhenyoungasSteve,”MauriceSaatchionceobserved。

Hiltonsetupaconsultancy,GoodBusiness(anearlychampionofcorporatesocialresponsibility),winningMcDonald’sandCoca-Cola。

Buthistalentforrebrandingshonein2005whenCameronbecamepartyleader。

Hedecontaminatedthe“nastyparty”,presentingtheOldEtonianasmiddle-class“Dave”,whohuggedhoodiestodemonstratetheparty’snew“green,sociallyliberalandsiliconsavvy”credentials。

Theofficiallineisthathewillreturn,saysTheDailyTelegraph,butfriendsthinkitunlikely。

Hiltonisfrustratedwithcentralgovernment’sconstrictions,andismoreinterestedinbecomingmayorofBrightonorLondon。

Hemayalsohavedecidedit’stimethathiswife’scareercamefirst,saysMichaelWhiteinTheGuardian。

“TheverythoughtisenoughtogetolderToryMPssplutteringintotheirgin–butit’sprobablyafactorandaveryzeitgeistyone。

VerySteveHilton。



HowmuchwillHilton’sdeparturehurtCameron?

FewofthepublichaveheardofSteveHilton。

Sodoeshisexitmatter?

Itcertainlydoes,saysTheSundayTimes。

“Advisersadvise,ministersdecide,”MargaretThatcherfamouslysaid。

Butthe1989resignationofherkeyadviser,SirAlanWalters,was“thebeginningoftheendofherpremiership”and“TonyBlairwasneverthesame,forbetterorworse,afterAlistairCampbellleftDowningStreetin2003”。

That’snottosaythatDavidCameronisonhislastlegs,butthedepartureofHilton–describedbyoneallyas“punkanti-establishment”–leavesthegovernmentindangerof“politicaldrift”。

AmongthePM’scautiousinner-circle,“Stevealonewillbanghisfistonthetableandsay‘whyaren’twebeingmoreradical’”?

Still,civilservantsandsomeministerswillbe“gladtohaveabreak”fromhis“unstoppable”streamofideas–“manyofthempoliticallysuicidal”,saysGeorgeParkerintheFT。

StoriesthatheadvocatedcloudburstingtechnologytogiveBritainmoresunshineareapocryphal。

Buthisdrivetoeliminatered-tapeledtoproposalstoscrapmaternityleaveandsuspendconsumerrights。

HealsoadvocatedprivatisingtheM25。

Hilton’sBigSocietynevertookoffwithvoters,buthissuccessesareunderrated,saysMichaelWhiteinTheGuardian。

Hewasamasteratputtingfashionabletheories–RichardThaler’s“Nudge”isone–intoapracticalcontext。

“Blue-skiesthinkersarewelcomeinopposition,andintheboldearlydaysofanygovernment,”saysJackieAshleyinTheGuardian。

ButHilton’sideaswerefrustratedby“thepoliticsofcoalitionandtheanaestheticeffectofcivilserviceadvice”–nottomentionausterity。

TheprimeministerisunlikelytolosetouchwithHiltonandhiswife,RachelWhetstone,onapersonallevel:theyweregodparentstohiseldestson,Ivan。

But,withingovernment,“Cameronhaslosttheonlypersonreallyclosetohimacknowledgedtobe…aninstinctiveoutsider”。

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