token法律合规文件与新加坡基金会_链支付 – 365bet台湾官网_bet356体育投注网_www.666365.com

关于数字代币涉及的违法风险主要以下几个方向:

1。

传销犯罪

2。

非法吸收公众存款

3。

集资诈骗犯罪

4。

非法经营

5。

洗钱犯罪

6。

外汇犯罪

那应该如何规避相关风险呢?

完全合法化,比如在泰国从事相关业务,前提是申请到相关牌照,但是很难,那到牌照的寥寥无几。

但好消息是,新加坡19年可以申请真真正正的数字货币交易牌照了,

边缘化,打擦边球,比如新加坡,可以注册非盈利基金会,额外再加上相关法律意见书,来证明所做的项目是不违背新加坡现行法律法规的,相比之下,这个更容易做到,而且费用成本低,像比原链、莱特币等都是这种操作。

那下面我就简单说下,如何利用新加坡基金会来发行虚拟数字代币:

如何利用新加坡非盈利组织上交易所发行虚拟币

新加坡非盈利组织有三种:

1。

公众担保有限公司

2。

社团

3。

慈善信托

目前区块链项目的主体都是以第一种形式在新加坡落地,也就是圈内所说的新加坡非盈利基金会。

注册新加坡基金会需要提供哪些文件和流程?

1。

基金或基金会的名称:全英文大写XXXFOUNDATIONLTD。

2。

提供两位或两位以上成员的,身份证、护照,电子档即可3。

签合同4。

耐心等待10-25工作日5。

查收注册完成文件

基金会注册好后,需要相关的律师文件来证明,这个项目的合法性以及所发代币的属性。

通称法律意见书,下面我给大家介绍下律师针对区块链项目的法律意见书有哪些:

1。

根据新加坡监管条例出具Token非证券性质证明法律意见书

2。

白皮书法律合规律师意见书

3。

私募条款

4。

公募条款、网站公示以及免责申明

5。

英文白皮书编写

6。

包含项目进程中的所有法律相关的咨询,方案设计与资源对接

7。

募集主体(基金会)与运营主体间的服务文件

随后就是选择交易所的事情了,评估一家交易所,主要从以下五个维度:

1。

基础货币交易额

2。

非基础货币交易额

3。

(小额)提充币速度

4。

用户体验满意度

5。

安全性

交易所的对接,大致框架有以下几个步骤,当然,每个交易所的要求和上币费是不一样的:

1、项目方向交易平台提起上币申请;2、平台方审核项目,完成初审后会与项目方做进一步沟通和调查;3、一些平台方上币要求持有一定数额的平台币,或者通过投票上币的方式进行上币;4、通过审核或达到活动条件后,进行上币技术对接5、发布上币公告,并开始交易。

综上就是基金会合法合规的发币主要步骤,像技术性的细节,这里就不提了,有自己的团队最好,没有的话,有专业的代开发团队,只要有实力,甚至怕只有一个想法,一切皆有可能。

Ico流程

那我就简单跟说下大致框架:

一、前期准备

1。

白皮书撰写

2。

团队组建

3。

主体基金会注册

4。

法律合规

二、代币发行

1。

开发设立官网与服务器

2。

开发钱包与合约

3。

代币上链

三、市场推广

1。

准备官宣通稿、宣传海报

2。

首轮媒体宣传

3。

全球多城市路演

4。

社群组建管理

四、资金募集

1。

私募

2。

公募

五、上交易所

1。

选择交易所

2。

对接交易所

3。

于交易所上市

六、后续运作

1。

市值管理

2。

媒体宣传

3。

社区联盟运营

大体思路就是这样,当然了,顺序只是参考,而且每个项目有自己的特点,结合自身项目情况具体而定。

本站全部作品均是链支付资讯原创或来自网络转载,转载目的在于传递和分享更多信息,并不代表本站赞同其观点和对其真实性负责,所产生的纠纷与本站无关。

如涉及作品内容、版权和其它问题,请联系本站删除。

以下区块链沟通用户体验设计运营


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US financial meltdown it ain’t over till it’s over – MoneyWeek

It’sunderstandablewhymanythinktheworstmustbepast–thesheersizeofthewrite-offssofarcouldeasilyleadyoutowonderhowmuchmoremoneycanbelost。

Afterall,bankshavealreadywrittendown$245bnandraised$150bnincapitaltorepairtheirbalancesheets。

Butthetruthisthatthisismorelikelytobethebeginningthantheend。

Notonlyhavewenotseenallthelossesfromthemortgagedebacle,butthereckoningfromoverexuberanceinotherpartsofthecreditmarkethasbarelybegun。

Thefirstthingthatweshouldnoteisthattheproblemisnotjustsubprime。

It’snotevensubprimeandAlt-A。

(Alt-Ameanstheborrowerhasadecentcreditscore,buttheapplicationdoesn’tconformtoprimestandards–oftenthere’slimitedornoproofofincome。

)Iftruthbetold,someoftheprimeouttherelooks,well,notthatprimeafterall–foreclosureratesonprimeadjustable-ratemortgagesarenowfollowingsubprimes。

ThefactisthatweareinunchartedterritorywithUSmortgages,bothintermsofthescaleofthebubbleandtheslacknessofthelendingstandards。

Thequestionis:howbadwillthedamagebe?

Estimatinglikelylossesisverytrickysincewedon’thaveaccurateprecedentstogoon。

Butoneattempt,byagroupofeconomistsincludingJanHatziusofGoldmanSachs,triesthreedifferentapproachesandfindsallpointtolossesnorthof$400bn。

Ofthis,theyforecastthatabitoverhalf–around$240bn–willbebornebytheleveragedfinancialsector:banks,broker-dealers,hedgefundsandfinancecompanies。

Therestwillfalloninvestorssuchaspensionandinsurancefunds,whoownmortgage-backedsecurities(MBS)–bondsbackedbythecashflowfrompoolsofmortgages–orcollateraliseddebtobligations(CDOs)builtinturnfrompoolsofMBS。

Althoughalltheselossesareimportant,it’sthefinancialsectorlossesthatmattermost。

That’sbecauseit’stheerosionofthebanks’capitalthroughwrite-downsthatforcesthemtocutlendingandinterfereswiththesupplyofcredittotheeconomy。

Thecreditcrunchwon’tbeoveruntilthebleedingstopsandthenewinjectionsofcapitalletbanksopenforbusinessoncemore。

Withthatinmind,thesituationdoesn’tlooktoobad。

Althoughnotallthewrite-offssofararemortgagedebt,itlooksreasonabletoconcludefromthesizeofthemthatwe’refairlyfarthroughrecognisingthelosses–especiallysincethosebymoreprivateholderssuchashedgefundswillhavebeenrecognised,butwon’tbeacknowledgedsopublicly。

Meanwhile,therightsissuessofararegoingagoodwaytoreplacingvanishedreserves。

AsfarasUSmortgagesgo,theendmaybeinsight。

Sowhat’sthesnag?

Theproblemisthatresidentialisjustthebeginning。

Consumersaren’tjustintroubleonmortgages–they’reintroubleeverywhere。

Ifpeopledefaultontheirmortgages,weshouldexpectthemtodefaultoncreditcards,carloans,studentloans,homeloansandeveryotherformofdebtthathasbeenrecklesslyadvancedforthelastfewyears。

Andthat’sexactlywhatwe’reseeing。

LatestdatafromtheAmericanBankersAssociationshowconsumersfallingbehindonpaymentsatthehighestratein15years。

This,remember,isbeforewe’reevenfullyintoaUSrecession。

Thesetypesofdebtaren’tasbigasthemortgagemarket,butthey’resignificant–there’saround$2。

5trninconsumercreditoutstanding,comparedwith$10。

5trninmortgages。

And,likemortgages,theseloanshavebeendistributedthroughthefinancialsystem,bybeingplacedintoasset-backedsecurities(ABS)orslicedanddicedintoCDOs。

Inotherwords,theyarewaitingtowreakhavocinjustthewaythatmortgagesalreadyhave。

Goldman’sanalystsexpecttotallossesof$145bnforcreditcardsand$78bnforcarloans。

Thegoodnewsforfinancialinstitutionsisthatthehittothemislikelytobesmaller(relativelyspeaking)becausetheyhavelessexposuretotheselosses–Goldmanestimateslossesof$38bnand$13bnrespectively。

Butitdoesbringawholenewgroupofpotentiallosersintotheframe,suchasspecialistcreditcardlenders–aswellasless-obviousvictimssuchascarfirms,throughtheirfinancearms。

However,consumerproblemsdon’taccountforeverythingatrisk。

UScommercialrealestateandconstructionanddevelopmentlendingalsogotcarriedaway。

Whiletheexcessesweren’tasgreatasinresidential,there’snodoubtthatlendingstandardsslipped,overbuildingtookplaceandpriceswerebidupbeyondreason。

Nowthestrainsareshowing。

Delinquencyratesoncommercialmortgagesalmostdoubledduring2007,evenwhilethenon-residentialconstructionboomcontinued。

Nowconstructionappearstohavepeakedandispoisedtofollowresidentialdown。

Vacancyratesarerisinginmanyareas。

Meanwhile–intheusualcaseofthestabledoorslammingbehindthedepartedhorse–theFed’sSeniorLoanOfficersurveyshowscommerciallenderssteadilytighteningtheirstandards。

Commercialreal-estatelossesarestartingtoshowupinbanks’write-downs,butthemajorityisstilltocome–Goldmanestimateslossestotheleveragedfinancialsectorof$83bn。

Butthelossprofilemaybeabitdifferent–whilethebigbanksareheavilyexposedtoresidentialmortgages,commercialloansareconcentratedwithmid-sizedUSregionalbanks(seechartbelow)。

Thesefirmsmayhavedodgedabulletbynotbeingsoheavilyexposedtoresidentialmortgages,buttheirreckoningiscoming。

Leveragedloans

It’snotjustaconsumerproblemandrealestateproblem。

Anyonewholooksatrecentwrite-downsinanydetailwillhavenoticedthewords‘leveragedloan’croppingupwithincreasingfrequency。

Leveragedloansareloanstocompaniesthathaveahigherriskofdefaultingonthedebt–they’retheloanequivalentofajunkbond。

Thetwoarealsoknownashigh-yieldloansandhigh-yieldbondsrespectively,reflectingthefactthattheborrowermustpaymoreinteresttocompensateforthehigherriskofdefault。

Leveragedloanswerepartofthestartofthecreditcrunch。

Bankshadbeenadvancingloanstoprivateequitygroupstofundtheirbuyouts,withtheloansthenbeingsyndicated(soldontootherinvestors)orrepaidwhentheborrowerraisedmoneyinanotherway–suchasissuinghigh-yieldbondsinthebondmarket。

Forarrangingthistemporaryloan,thebankpocketsasizeablefee。

Itwasagoodbusiness–untilthecreditcrunchhitandbuyerswentonstrike,leavingthebanksstuckwithasizeablebacklogofloansontheirbalancesheets。

Atitspeak,thebacklogwasestimatedintheregionof$300bn,althoughithasnowbeenpareddowntosomewhereabove$200bn。

Buttoshifttheseloans,banksarebeingforcedtosellatbiglosses。

Pricesaround85-90centsonthedollararecommon,withsomedealsbeingreportedinthe60s。

Atfirst,thislooksstrange。

Unlikemortgages,wherelossesarealreadytakingplace,andconsumerloansandcommercialrealestate,wheredefaultratesarepickingup,thestressincorporatedebtisprettymuchconfinedtothepriceitfetchesinthemarket。

Defaultratesremainverylow–ratingsagencyMoody’sreportdefaultsof0。

1%onleveragedloansand1。

3%onhigh-yieldbondsfor2007。

Sowhyareinvestorsrunningscared?

Bynow,it’swidelyknownthatlendingstandardsinthemortgagemarketwerelamentablylowformanyyears。

Whatfewerpeoplerealiseisthatstandardsinlendingtobusinessesslippeddrasticallyaswell。

Justasmortgagefirmslentatincreasinglyhighmultiplesofsalary,corporatelendersgrewlessstringentaboutborrowers’financialstrength(seechartbelow)。

Covenantsonloansbecamelaxer。

Riskierdebtsuchassecond-lienandmezzanineloans–whichrankbehindotherloanswhenitcomestogettingpaidintheeventofadefault–proliferated,whiletheratiooflower-ratedtohigher-ratedbondsincreased。

Meanwhile,likemortgagesandconsumercredit,muchofthedebtwassecuritisedintocollateralisedloanobligations(CLOs)andsoldon,spreadingtheimpactfurtherthroughthesystem。

Inshort,corporatelendinghaditsownsubprimeproblem。

Whiledefaultratesremainedlow,thisrelaxedapproachtolendingstandardsseemedfine,butthatbenignenvironmentisunlikelytocontinue。

Moody’sforecaststhatUSbonddefaultrateswillincreaseto5。

3%bytheendof2008andloansto3%。

However,thiswouldmerelytakeitbacktonearlong-termaveragelevelsandassumesneutralliquidityconditionsreturn–ifliquidityremainsastightasitiscurrently,analystssay10%-plusdefaultratesonbonds(andanimpliedrateof6%ormoreonloans)arepossible。

What’smore,becauseloanshavebeendistributedamonglenderstoagreaterextentthanbefore,therecouldbeasubstantialdifferencebetweenthiscreditcycleandpreviousones,saysWillemSels,headofcreditstrategyatDresdnerKleinwort。

Inthepast,adefaultingcompanywouldoftenbedealingwithonelender–thebankthatoriginallymadetheloan。

Thistime,mostwillbedealingwithseverallendersoneachloan,whohavedifferentagendasandwhoseinterestsmaynotbealignedwitheachotherortheborrower。

Theresultmaybeless-than-idealforallinvolved–borrowersareforcedintobankruptcyorrushedassetsales,whilelendersgetbacklessthantheymightotherwisehavedone。

Consequently,Selsthinksthatrecoveryratesarelikelytobewellbelowtheirhistoricaverageof35%forhigh-yieldbondsand65%forleveragedloans。

Goldmanestimatesthattheleveragedfinancialsectorwilltakelossesof$53bnoncorporateloansand$33bnonbonds,bringingthegrandtotaltoaround$458bn。

Overalllosses,includinginvestorssuchaspensionandinsurancefunds,maytop$1。

2trn。

Thesefiguresinvolvealotofassumptionsthatmaybetoopessimisticortoooptimistic;inaddition,there’snoallowancefortheburstinghousingbubbleselsewhereintheworld。

Butthemessageisclear–banksarenowhereneartofinishingtheirwrite-downs。

Anduntiltheydo–andraiseenoughcapitaltopatchtheresultingholesintheirbalancesheets–thecreditcrunchwon’tbeover。

Sowhatdoesthismeanforinvestors?

Ifyou’reinvestedinafinancialcompany,it’snogoodbeingreassuredthatithaslittlesubprimeexposure–youalsoneedtoknowitsexposureinotherdebtclassesandotherlinesofbusiness,suchasprimebrokerage(lendingtohedgefundsthatmayinturnbeinvestedinriskydebt)。

ConsiderCitigroup’sproposedsaleof$12bninleveragedloans,whichwillseethebankprovide75%ofthefinanceforthedeal–whileitwillnolongerbeonthehookforthefirstsliceofthelosses,itcertainlyhasn’tshiftedalltherisk。

It’salsoimportanttoknowwherefundsareinvestingtheirmoney。

We’vealreadyseenproblemswithfundsthatheldriskymortgagedebtinanefforttoekeoutmoreyield,anddiscoveredthatmanyAAA-ratedCDOsweren’treallyAAA。

Thesameproblemsarelikelytocropupwithotherformsofdebt。

Lastly,investorsincompanieswithahighdebtloadshouldbeawareofahigherriskofdefault。

Checkitsfundingarrangements–isitindangerofbreachingcovenants(suchasthelevelofEbitda/interestcover)ordoesithavedebtthatneedstoberefinancedsoon?

Theprospectsaren’tgoodforfirmsthatneedmoremoneyinthesemarketsandexistingshareholdersarelikelytogetlittleinanyrestructuring。

Thefinalquestionishowtomakemoneyfromthecrunch。

Anycreditcrisissuchasthiscreatesopportunities。

Panickedinvestorsfailtodifferentiatebetweengoodandbad,givingyouthechancetopickupoversold,butsoliddebtandtoinvestindistressedcompaniesthatmaysurvive。

Welookattwowaystomakeaplayonthisbelow。

Tworiskywaystoprofitfromthecrunch

Investinginmispriceddebtordistressedcompaniesishighrisk。

Securitiesthatseemtoocheapmaybesoforareason,whileturnaroundinvestmentsoftenfailtoliveuptothename。

Thatcaveataside,timeslikethisthrowupsomeinterestingopportunitiesandherearetwowaystoplaythesethemes。

Prodesse(PRD)isaspecialistinvestmentcompanythatinvestsinAAA-ratedsecuritiesfromUSGovernmentSponsoredEntities(GSEs)。

BondinvestorshavelongtreatedtheGSEsascarryingaUSgovernmentguarantee,butthisisn’ttrue;onlyGinnieMaeisguaranteedandtheothertwoexplicitlypointoutthattheyarenot。

Recently,GSEbondpricesandcreditdefaultswapshavebeenvolatileasmarketsquestiontheassumptionthatthegovernmentwouldalwaysbailthemout。

ButwhiletheGSEscouldtechnicallydefault,thechanceisincrediblyslim–thedisruptionthatitwouldcauseinthemarketwouldbesovastthatit’simpossibletoimaginethegovernmentallowingittohappen。

Investinginthesesecuritieswhentradersarepanickingovernon-existentthreatslooksagoodbet–butbearinmindthatProdesseusesleveragetoincreasereturnsandconsequentlycarrieshigherrisk。

Althoughyoucaninvestdirectlyindistressedcompaniesandhopeforaturnaround,entrustingyourmoneytoaspecialistfundmaybeabetteroption,sinceitwillhaveenoughclouttoaffectthefutureofthecompany。

Thereareafewinvestmentcompanieswhoseinvestingstylescatertothis–ChrisMayerofCapitalCrisispicksoutLeucadiaNational(US:LUK),aNewYork-basedconglomeratethatpractices“theepitomeofdistressedinvesting”。

Buyingsharesinafirmlikethisinvolvesputtingyourtrustinthemanagement’sjudgment。

However,Leucadia’strackrecord,stretchingbackto1979,looksprettygood。

NakedTextNakedText


Roasted Root Vegetables

RoastedRootVegetables

RoastedRootVegetableMedley

Oven-roastingbringsoutthenaturalsweetnessofmanyvegetables,andthisisparticularlytrueinthecaseofrootvegetables。

Youcanvarythevegetablessuggestedhere;forexample,ifyouprefernottousebeets,usemoreofoneoftheothertypesofvegetables;andifyoudontcareforparsnips,trygoldenpotatoes。

SavePrintRoastedRootVegetableMedleyAuthor:NavaRecipetype:RoastedvegetablesCuisine:HealthyPreptime:25minsCooktime:30minsTotaltime:55minsServes:6Oven-roastingbringsoutthenaturalsweetnessofmanyvegetables,andthisisparticularlytrueinthecaseofrootvegetables。

Ingredients1largesweetpotato,peeled,cutinhalflengthwise,andsliced2mediumbeets,peeledandsliced(useredorgoldenbeets)1largeturnip,peeled,cutinhalf,andsliced3to4mediumcarrots,peeledandcutintothickslicesonthediagonal2parsnips,peeled,quarteredandcutinto?

approximately3-inchsections1mediumredonion?

quarteredandslicedthickly2tablespoonsoliveoilSaltandfreshlygroundpeppertotastePincheach?

Cinnamon,nutmegFreshrosemaryand/orthymesprigs?

totaste,optionalInstructionsPreheattheovento425degreesF。

Prepareallthevegetablesasdirected,makingsuretosliceeverythingintofairlyeventhicknesses。

Placeinaparchment-lined?

roastingpan。

Drizzlewithwiththeoliveoil?

Bakefor20to30?

minutes,stirringevery5minutesorso?

Thevegetablesshouldbetenderontheinsideandtouchedwithgoldenbrownontheoutside。

Seasongentlywithsaltandpepperandtheoptionalcinnamonandnutmeg。

Theveggieswillhaveplentyofflavoroftheirown;noneedtooverdoitwithseasonings。

Transfertoacoveredservingcontainerandkeepwarmuntilserving,thengarnishwithfreshrosemaryand/orthymeleaves。

3。

3。

3077



Herearemore?

recipesfeaturingroastedvegetables。

Explore?

AColorfulVeganChristmas(VegetariansWelcome!

)?

foracompletelistingofholidaydinnerrecipes,menus,anddesserts。

AColorfulVeganChristmasRoastedVegetableDishesVeganRecipes

March29,2011


MorningWord 52413 Mind The Gap

MorningWord5/24/13?

WhenIwasayoungtraderworkingwithandforoldertradersIusedtohearalotofwarstoriesandgetlotsofadvice?

SohereisaanexampleofonethatIoftenthinkbackto。

Backinthelate90swhenspecialistsontheflooroftheNewYorkStockExchangestillheldsomeswayinthepricemovementsofstocks,andstocksstilltradedinfractions,specialists,ontheleastbitofstockspecificnews,wouldmakeanopeningindicationforastockaswideastheycouldinanefforttodrawinbuyersandsellers。

IfforinstanceIBMclosedat$200andafterthebellmissedearningsandguidedlowertothetuneof10%,youwouldseethespecialistnextmorningindicatethestock$180bidat$185(dependingonwherethestockwastradinginthepre-market,butrememberthiswasbeforetheproliferationofelectronicexchanges,andpre-marketactivitywasusuallydonewithalargecapitalproviderlikeabank)inanefforttoseewherepeoplecaredonthedownside?

Moreoftenthannotthestockopenedabovethatdramaticfirstindication,butthespecialistalwaysdidhisbesttohavetheopeningimbalancelookassloppyaspossiblesohecouldopenitlow,buystockontheprint(hisjobwastoprovidecapitaltomakeafairandorderlymarketha)andsellhisshareshigherasshortsorbottom-fisherscamein。

Oneofmymentorsatthetimeusedtosaywatchthatopeningindicationforthedisasterdujour。

Despitewherethestockactuallyopened,thestockwouldfinditswaybacktothatinitialindicationlevel?

WhilespecialistsholdlittlecloutanymoreIoftenlookatgaplevels,reboundsandretracestogetasenseforwheresupportandresistancecancomein。

YesterdayIhadafriendinthebusinessaskmewhatIthoughtofsellingtheCRMMay24thweekly(todayexpiration)42。

5putat。

50infrontoflastnightsearningsannouncement?

Tobehonest,CRMisontheRiskReversal。

combannedlistasthestockmakeslittlesensetous?

Iquicklylookedattheimpliedmoveofabout8%vsthe4qtravg?

moveofabout7%andthenhadalookatthechart?

The15daychartbelowshowsthestocksbreakoutlevelat$42。

50whichalsohappenstobethe50and200daymovingaverages,andalsohappenstoberightatthelevelwherethestockgappeddowntoyesterdayonthesloppyopen。

CRM15daychartfromBloomberg

Lookingattheytdchart,helpsmakemypoint,asyesterdayslowof~$43wasrightaftertheopeningandthenthestockpoppedasbuyerscamein。

CRMytdchartfromBloomberg

Sowhenmyfriendsaidhewasmildlybullish,butdidntwanttocommitlongpremiumtothetradegiventhehighimpliedvolheadingintotheprinthewantedtofindsomethingtosellwithlittledurationrisk?

Mysimpleandfairlypedestriananalysiswasthatwasnotthestriketosell,almostpurelyonmymemoryofthelittlegaplesson(eventhoughverydifferentthanthelate90s,stillkindofapplicable)?

Lastnight,thecompanybeatontheirfiscalQ1butguideddownforfiscalQ2andthestockistradingdownabout7。

5%inthepre-marketatabout$42。

50oryesterdayslow?

Ifmyfriendhadexecutedhisputsale,histradecouldverywellbeawinnerifthestockclosesabove$42。

50today,buthewouldmostdefinitelybesweatingitalldayandwouldlikelyhavetomakeadecisiononwhetherornotthestockwillstabilize,orriskgettingputthestock?

INtheendtheriskofcapturing1%oftheunderlinginadayinfrontofapotentiallyvolatileearningseventwithyesterdaysopeninggapveryneartheleveldidntseemliketherighttrade,regardlessoffundamentalview?

Thisoneisgonnacomedowntothewire。

[hr]

MorningWord5/23/13?

AsEnissaidinhisMacroWrapearlier,escalatorup,elevatordown,notmuchmorethatneedstobesaidontheNikkei?

Wehavementionedonmorethanoneoccasioninthethelastmonththattheincreasedvolatilityincommoditiesandcurrencieswaslikelyatsome-pointtocauseanadverseeffectinglobalequitiesandpullthatprotectedrugoutfromunderneaththerally?

Novictorylapshere,thisisnotgonnabeaneasyoneandwehavebeenearlyonthecallforacorrection。

AsIconsiderthepriceactionofthelast24hours,itmostcertainlycouldbethesortofthingthatwelookbackoninafewmonthsandsay,wowthatwasobvious,butmysenseisitwontbethateasy?

TopsareaprocessandinmanywaystodayssetupcouldprovetobeabittreacherousforthoselookingtopresstheSPXontheshortside,righthere,rightnow?

AfteryesterdaysreversalinU。

S。

equities,Iwouldhavelikedtohaveseenasmallupopeningthismorningandgetasenseforwhatsortofmusterthebuythedipcrowdhas?

ButtheovernightactioninAsiathathasspreadtoEurope,hasrobbedusofthatpossibility,andsetsupfor2scenariosthewayIseeit;1。

abounce(SPfuturesalready7handlesoffofthelows)thatgetssoldandwemakeamovebacktowards1600whichshouldserveasdecentneartermsupport,or2。

theygetbacktodoingwhattheydo,andviewanypullbackasanopportunitytogetlongandstrong?

WehavejokedamongourselvesatRRHQthatbuyingevery1%dipintheSPXthisyear(andtherehaventbeenmany)havebeentheBuysoftheYear,willitbedifferentthistime?

IfIwasaragingbull(whichIammostcertainlynot)thehealthiestthingforthelongevityofmyportfoliowouldbeanorderlyselloff?

thattakesoutwhatlookedtobeanearparabolicriseinthelastmonththatatyesterdayshighsneared10%gainsfromtheApril18thlows?

Soifyouareoneofthoselevelsguys,asstatedabovethen1590to1600shouldserveasthefirsttargetforsupportwhichmatchesthebreak-outlevel,the50daymovingaverageandtheloverendoftheup-trendchannelthathasbeeninplacesincetheNov2012lows。

SPX1yrchartfromBloomberg

ReadersofthesiteandviewersofOptionsAction,FastMoneyandTalkingNumbersonCNBCknowthatwehaveourfairshareofSingleStockshortson,LongVIXcallspreadsandEnishasbeenasizebuyerofU。

S。

dollarsagainstanycross。

thistradeshouldworkokforusinthenearterm,butwearemostcertainlylookingtoaddlongsatsupportorpriorbreakoutlevelsofstoriesthatmaystarttoactindependentofthebroadmarketoratleastduetosoundfundamentalsactlessbadintheeventofasustainedselloff。

Hereareafewnameswearelookingtoaddlongexposuretoandthelevels:

CSCOat~$22theearningsbreak-outandlongtermresistancethatshouldnowserveassupport:

CSCO3yrchartfromBloomberg

BBRYat~$12,whichis2013supportandrightabovethe200daymovingavg,somethinghastogivehere,sumofthepartsattractivelowdoubledigits:

BBRY1yrchartfromBloomberg

JCPanamethatEnishasbeenalloveronthelongsideandcurrentlylookingtore-enterthetrade?

at$17ish,some-wherenearthat100daymovingavg:

JCP1yrchartfromBloomberg

TGT,Enisalsolikesat$65orsowhichmatchesthebreakoutlevelandshouldserveaslongtermsupportrightabovethe200daymovingavg:

TGT1yrchartfromBloomberg

Pointhereistryingtopicktopsisafoolserrand,wehavedoneourbesttoavoidalloutbearishtradeswithindexoptionsandinsteadfocusedonsinglenameswherewefeelthereisadisconnectbtwnpriceactionandfundamentals?

WehavealsobeenfairlyadamantthatequityvolhasbeentoolowandwhyonmorethanoneoccasionsuggestedthatlongVIXcallsisabetterplayforareversalthanSPYputs,whichcouldbegintochangeifweweretoseeaquickvolspike?

Sowewillcontinuetoplayfrombothsidesandwillnotgetmarriedtojustoneview,butasTheDudesaid(Iparaphrase)thisisaverycomplicatedcase。

lottains,lotofouts,lotofwhathaveyous?

Justcauseithasbeenaonewaystreetonthewayupdoesntexactlymeanwearegonnagostraightdown,despitetheactioninJapanovernight,sothebestthingformostmarketparticipantsisstaynimblebutkeepyourprimarythesisintact。

[hr]

MorningWord5/22/13?

Anotherday,anotherrecordfortheSPX?

Whilethepriceactioncanbe?

categorized?

as?

relatively?

sideways,itwasntagreat?

daytobeabigboxelectronicsorvideogameretailer。

BBYwasdown4。

3%onwhatcanonlybe?

categorized?

asadisappointingquarterhighlightedbyanearningsmissandgreaterthanexpecteddeclineingrossmarginsduetothecompanyscommitmentcocontinuetheirholidayseasonpolicytopricematchonline?

competitors。

GMEwasdown5%asMSFTintroducedtheirnewhotlyanticipatedXboxOne,andthereappearstobesomeuncertaintywhetherornottheconsolewillplayusedgameswithout?

certain?

coding。

Yesterdaysdeclinesintheaforementionednamesstickout,asidefrombothbeingconsumer-tech?

focused?

retailersthereareacouplesimilaritiesaboutthestocks?

Bothstockswereessentiallyleftfordeadlastyear,withmanycallingfortheirdemiseasaresultofAMZNscontinuedmarketshare-gainsbasedonbricksandmortarretailersinabilitytocompeteonprice?

Despitetheseculartrendtowardswebsales,BBYandGMEhavehadsomespectacularperformanceytdup46%and116%?

respectively?

asbothcompaniescontinuetoexecuteon?

restructurings?

Mysenseisthatthestockperformancecouldhavemoretodowiththefactthatbothstockstradeatabout10xnextyearsearningsestimates,bothhavehighshortinterest(BBY~10%GME~34%),bothpayahealthydividend(BBY~2。

65%GME~3%),neithercompanyisoverlevered,bothhaveaheavyconcentrationofholdersamonglargestholders(bothhaveabout60%ofthesharesoutstandingownedbythetop10holders)。

WhatsevenmorefascinatinginayearthathasseentheresurgenceofleftfordeadbricksandmortarelectronicsretailersisAMZNs?

under-performance?

onlyup~7%ytd。

Iguessthelessonhereisfairlysimple,sometimesthemovesthatweexpectleasthavelittletodowithfundamentalsandalottodowithtechnicalfactors?

Thishasbeenarunningthemeinthemarketforsometime。

Wehavemadethispointonafew?

occasions?

oflate,mostrecentlyaboutsomeofthesolarnamesandthemoveinTSLA?

GeoLangjpg-800 – 安全牛



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