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1494546365-7422-76df691f4687a6e19fe7abec168c

Published2017年5月12日at600333inAMD7nmZen处理器首次确认:史诗级48核。

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How to tap in to the high-growth gas business – MoneyWeek

Let’stakealookatsomeofthecurrentmajordevelopments…

Pipelines。

Russia,whichhastheworld’sbiggestreservesofnaturalgas,isbuildingadirectlinktoGermanybeneaththeBalticSea,andplanningotherstoChinaandItaly。

Theseareenormousundertakings。

The3,000kmItalianlink,forexample,isexpectedtocost$15bn。

Elsewhere,theConocoPhillips-BPpipelinetobringNorthSlopegasfromAlaskatoCanada’soilsandsindustryandthelower48USstateswillbethelargestprivate-sectorconstructionprojectinNorthAmerica。

AndthepipelineChinaisbuildingfromTurkmenistaninCentralAsiatoShanghaiwillstretchfor9,000kms。

Liquefaction。

Analternativemeansofmovinggasistoliquefyitbyfreezing,shiptheliquidsacrossoceans,thenturnitbackintogas。

Thetechnologyisnotnew,butLNG(LiquifiedNaturalGas)facilitiesarehugelyexpensive。

Foryearsthislimiteditstransportationtocountriesnotaccessiblebypipeline,mainlyJapan。

ButhighenergypriceshavenowmadeLNGviableonalargescale。

Andthereareotheradvantages。

Europeannations,forexample,nervousabouttheirincreasingdependenceonRussiangas,arelookingtoalternativesourcessuchasNorthAfrica,usingLNG。

Chinasigneda$60bndealwithQatarlastmonthtobuythreemilliontonsofLNGayearover25yearsfrom2011。

Withitsvolumesgrowing7%ayear,LNGisthefastestgrowingofthefossil-fuelindustries。

Becauseofthemassiveinvestmentsrequired,itisdominatedbyahandfulofverylargemultinationals。

NewReserves。

Oilmajorsareboostingeffortstofindandtaphydrocarbondepositsthatareprimarilygas,withoilasaside-product。

Thenewly-discoveredSugarLoaffieldundertheAtlanticoffBrazil,claimedtobeoneoftheworld’sbiggest,isprimarilyanaturalgasresource。

TheShtokmandevelopmentintheBarentsSeaoffRussia’sArcticcoast,andseveralprojectsoffthecoastofnorth-westAustralia,focusonproductionofgas,notoil。

Thereisalsoincreasinginterestinexploitinghard-rockresourcesthathavebeenneglectedinthepastbecauseit’sdifficulttotaptheirgas。

OnthewesternslopesoftheUSRockies,ExxonMobilisstartingtoemployanexplosivefracturingtechniquethreetimesmoreeffectivethanconventionaltechnologytounlocktherichesofthePiceanceBasin。

Coal-bedMethane。

The“fire-damp”foundincoaldepositsthecurseofminersthroughouttheagesisalmostpuremethaneandanexcellentsubstitutefornaturalgas,whichisaboutthree-quartersmethane。

Itmayberecoveredfromworked-outcollieriesorfromcoaldepositsleftunexploitedbecausetheyaresogassytheyaretoodangeroustomine,andalreadyaccountsforatenthofnaturalgasproductionintheUS。

BGGroup,theglobalspecialistinthediscovery,extractionandsupplyofnaturalgas,planstobuildtheworld’sfirstplanttoproduceLNGfromcoal-bedmethanepiped400kmfromfieldsintheinteriorofQueensland,Australia。

Liquidfuels。

Althoughcurrentlyusedasgastofuelcentralheating,industrialfurnacesandpowerstations,naturalgascanbeconvertedintoliquidfuels。

InQatar,whichhastheworld’sthirdlargestgasreserves,they’rebuildingplantstodojustthat。

Worldwidedemandfornaturalgashasbeengrowingatanaveragerateofnearly3%ayear,comparedtooil’s1。

7%。

China’sgasconsumptionisforecasttotripleoverthenext12years,India’stodouble。

Yetbetweenthemtheyhavelessthan2%ofglobalreserves,sotheywillbeforcedtolooktoimportsfromtheMideast,RussiaandAustralia。

Investinginnaturalgas:majorroleinpowerstations

Thestrongestdemandgrowthareafornaturalgasisinelectricitygeneration。

DirkBeeusaert,chiefexecutiveofSuez,theworld’sbiggestoperatorinthefield,saystheinvestmentcostperkilowattofpowerfromgasturbinesis“halfthatofacoalplant,andathirdofthatfromanuclearplantofthesamecapacity。



Gaspowerstationscanbebuiltquickly,areflexibleinoperation,reducedependenceonotherresourcessuchascoal,oilandnuclear–andhaveparticularattractionsinthesetimesofecomania。

Notonlydotheyproducelessgreenhousegasesthanotherfossilfuel,buttheycanbeusedefficientlytogenerateintermittentpower,tofillthegapswhenturbinesdrivenbywindandwatershutdownbecauseofcalmsordroughts。

Acoupleofdecadesago,gasaccountedforlittleoftheworld’selectricitygeneration;nowitfuelsalmostone-fifth。

Althoughtheoilmajorsaregivingincreasingattentiontofindingandproducingnaturalgas,mostoftheworld’sresourcesareclosedtothem,orarepoliticallyhigh-risk。

RussiaseekstouseitsgassuppliesasastrategicweaponinitsdealingswithEuropeandissqueezingoutforeigncompanies。

Iranisadifferentkindofpoliticalminefield。

Qatarishappytopartnerinternationaloilfirms,butisalsorightinthemiddleofthepotentiallyexplosiveMiddleEast。

OnecountrythatisbenefitingfromallthisisAustralia,whichhasreservesalmostaslargeasthoseoftheUS,productionthatislikelytocontinueexpandingforthenextquarter-century,andabusiness-friendlyenvironment。

Chevron’sGorgonprojectalone,whichgotitsgo-aheadfromregulatorsafewmonthsago,expectstoproducemorethanatrillioncubicmetresofgasoverits60-yearlife。

Howcanyouinvestinnaturalgas?

Thereareseveralexchange-tradedfundsthattrackgaspriceslistedintheUS,theUKandCanada。

Theyare:USNaturalGasFund(AMEX:UNG),iPathDJAIGNaturalGasTRETN(US),ETFSNaturalGasintheUK(dollar(LON:NGAS)andsterling(LON:NGSP)versions),andHorizonsBetaProNYMEXNaturalGasBullPlusETF(Canada)(PINK:HZBNF)。

Althoughallmajoroilcompanieshavesubstantialandincreasinggasinterests,onlyahandfuloflistedfirmsaregasspecialists:

Gazprom,theRussiancompanywhosesharesordepositaryreceiptsarelistedinMoscow(RTD:GAZP),NewYork,London(LON:GAZP)andFrankfurt,isTHEgiant。

Itownsone-thirdoftheworld’sprovenandprobablereservesandaccountsforafifthofglobalproduction。

Troubleis,theenterpriseisclearlyviewedbytheRussiangovernmentasitspoliticalinstrument,sotheinterestsofforeignshareholdershavelowpriority。

Also,ithasnospareproductivecapacityandapoorrecordfordevelopingadditionalcapacity。

BGGroup(LON:BG)istheleadinginternationalnaturalgasspecialist。

AlthoughoriginallyBritishGas,theNorthSeanowonlyaccountsforaboutathirdofitsproduction,therestcomingfromwellsinTrinidad,EgyptandNigeria。

Itisafront-runnerinLNG,owningseveralliquefactionandregasificationplants,includingoneofonlyfouroperatingintheUS。

Ithaslandedalong-termcontractwithSingaporeforthreemilliontonsofLNGthatitplanstosupplyfromanewAustralianventure。

Ithasa25percentshareinTupi,thefirstfieldtobebroughtintoproductioninBrazil’snewly-discoveredandmassivedeep-waterSugarLoafresource。

AndithaspartofapromisingprospectinKazakhstan。

AnalystsexpectitsproductiontoincreasetwiceasfastasitsgiantrivalsBPandShelloverthenextfewyears。

Investinginnaturalgas:otherexploration/productioncompaniesofinterest

Woodside(ASX:WPL)isAustralia’sleadingindependentwithastrongfocusonLNG。

ItoperatestwoprojectstappingtheenormousgasreservesofftheNorthwestcoastandhasstakesinothersea-bedgasventuresoffAustraliaandintheGulfofMexico。

NorthAmericaofferstheCanadiannaturalgasspecialistEnCana(TSE:ECA),severalproducerswithastrongfocusongassuchasXTOEnergy(NYSE:XTO),EOGResources(NYSE:EOG)andCimarex(NYSE:XEC),aswellastrustsdistributingincomefromgasroyaltiessuchasSanJuanBasin(NYSE:SJT)andHugoton(NYSE:HGT)。

EuropeanGas(ASX:EPG)isaninterestingspeculation。

ThisAustralianspecialistincoal-bedmethanehastieduptherightstotapgasfromalargeareaofcoalfieldsinFranceandItaly。

Itisdrillingtestwellsatseveralsitesthisyear。

Ifyouremainpositiveaboutprospectsforenergyresourcesgenerally,asIdo,becausegrowthinsupplywillcontinuetostruggletokeeppacewithgrowthindemand,especiallyfromChina,thenit’sagoodideatohavesomerelatedholdingsinyourportfolio。

Naturalgaslooksevenbetterthanoilbecauseofitssuperiorattractions–inparticularitsrelativeprice。

TheCanadiananalystKurtWolff,reportingrecentlythatdemandfornaturalgasintheUSelectricitygeneratingindustrysurgedby11percentlastyear,saidthatsignofstrength“bolstersourconfidencethatnaturalgaspriceinmillionBTUsisheadedtooilpriceinbarrelsdividedbyfive–equivalenttotwicetoday’slevel。



ByMartinSpringinOnTarget,aprivatenewsletteronglobalstrategy

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